What 35 Years of Sports Cards Taught Me About the Watch Market

A speculation cycle I've already watched play out once, and what it means for Patek, Rolex, and the independents chasing them

By @midlifecrisiswatches · 26 September 2026 · 4 min read

In brief

I've collected sports cards for close to 45 years, and I keep noticing the same patterns show up in watches, right down to how I built both collections too wide before learning to consolidate. This piece is about the speculation cycle I watched run through the card market over the last six years, where money piled into unproven quarterbacks at $30,000 while genuine Hall of Famers sat cheap, and where that capital eventually rotated back to the proven names. I lay out why I think the watch market is running the same movie with a different cast, with Patek, Rolex, Vacheron, and Lange as the greats getting overlooked while the money chases the next independent darling. It's a hypothesis, not a crash call, and I explain where it holds and where it might not. For the record, I still buy what I like rather than what I'd flip, but if I put my investor hat on, this is the thinking I'd act on.

This is a hot take piece and I hope you enjoy it. Let me start by saying that I really like what some of the independents are doing. This piece came about because the independent market feels like a speculation market and the price to play is creeping up. That thought is what inspired this piece.

I've been collecting sports cards for close to 45 years. Basketball mostly, with a sizable Peyton Manning collection on the side and a soft spot for art cards, the colorful, creative ones that were inspired by the 90s Skybox set that we've all seen back in the day. I've written for card journals, done the podcast circuit, and I don't have the biggest collection out there. But it's a specific one, built on real conviction, and I've learned more from it than I expected.

When I got back into cards seriously around 2014, I went wide fast. I wanted everything in basketball, spread across sets and eras with no real filter. I built up to 150+ watches the same way years later. Same instinct, same pattern: cast a wide net, then figure out what you actually like and consolidate into it. I'm still working through that consolidation on the watch side. Cards taught me it's a real process, not a phase. There is a lot of work.

Here's the part that matters for anyone collecting watches right now. Over the last six years, the card market ran a speculation cycle worth paying attention to. Money piled into unproven quarterbacks and speculative players, guys who hadn't played a down, some who had and were nowhere close to proven. Cards that should have been a few hundred dollars were going for $20,000, $30,000, even $70,000. Meanwhile you could pick up a good Peyton Manning, a genuine Hall of Famer, for $1,200. I sat that one out. It reminded me of watch flipping during the Daytona boom: buy for $30, flip for $32, buy for $32, flip for $34. You couldn't lose, until you could. People made money at each flip.

The music stopped. A lot of people got hurt holding cards of players who never panned out. I was at the biggest card show in the Northeast a couple of weekends ago, and the money had already moved. Shaquille O'Neal, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, basically anyone in the top rungs of the NBA top 50. Jordan cards that were $50 are now running $250. The capital didn't disappear. It rotated back to the proven names.

Play that forward to watches and the parallel writes itself. Patek is proven. Rolex is proven. Vacheron, A. Lange & Söhne, Audemars Piguet proven. Those are your Hall of Famers. Then you've got a wave of independents, and some of them will genuinely be the future of the industry. Most won't. Right now a lot of that money is chasing the unproven names at prices that don't yet match the track record. I'm not calling a crash. I'm saying I've watched this exact movie before, with a different cast.

So here's the hot take. If the card cycle is any guide, now is the moment to buy the icons while everyone else is out speculating on quarterbacks who haven't taken a snap. Patek, Vacheron, Lange, Rolex, the names getting quietly overlooked while attention and dollars chase the next independent darling. When that speculative money eventually rotates, and it will, it tends to land back where the provenance is undeniable. That's not a guarantee. It's a hypothesis built on watching the exact same setup play out in a different collectible market for the better part of a decade. Take it for what it's worth.

For me, I'm not playing this thesis fully, as I do not buy to flip or sell. I buy what I like. However, if I was to shift my investor hat to watches, instead of my day job, this is something I'd really consider.

Let me reiterate, I really like what some of the independent watchmakers are doing. I have many plans to acquire within this zone. And I'm excited to get lots of mail about how Patek and Vacheron are "done" as I see a ton of YouTube videos about that.