Would I Start a Watch Brand?

This question came from @thatdavidmerlin via my Instagram question box. It deserved more than a paragraph, so it gets its own post.

Here's the short answer: starting a watch brand today is the easiest it's ever been. Running a successful watch brand today may be the hardest it's ever been.

That paradox is the whole story. Let me unpack it.

The investor lens

My career has had three chapters: entrepreneur, intrapreneur, and investor. I've played investor at a variety of stages, and at this point I look at everything through that third lens.

The investor lens says no. Economically, watches are not the best sector to build in right now. Multiples on watch brands, and retail in general, are low compared to tech-forward sectors. If I'm going to spend a decade of my life building something from scratch, the math has to work, and here it doesn't. Passion is not a substitute for a multiple.

The more interesting question

Now, acquiring, merging, and transforming existing watch brands? That might be of interest.

I've spent the past ten years in private equity at a globally recognized firm. The playbooks and toolkits I've built and used could absolutely apply to this vertical. At scale, with vertical integration, it could be fun. Roll up production capacity, share distribution, consolidate back office, keep the brands distinct.

But I want to be honest about the flaw in that plan: none of it changes the multiples from three paragraphs ago. Operational excellence in a low-multiple sector still exits at a low multiple. You'd do it because you love the category, and you'd have to price that love into your expected returns.

So the honest answer is no to starting, maybe to buying, and clear-eyed either way.

Why starting is the easiest it's ever been

Five reasons:

1. Sourcing is global. Any material, any technology, any component. All within reach from a laptop.

2. Cost to source is low. MOQs (minimum order quantities) have collapsed. You no longer need to commit to thousands of units to get a factory's attention.

3. Content and creative can be done with or enabled by AI. What used to require an agency now requires a prompt and taste.

4. Marketing and distribution are digital. Easy access to plenty of advertising platforms, direct to consumer by default.

5. Anyone can build an audience. Everyone who puts in the time and effort to build a social platform for themselves or their brand has a chance of winning.

The tsunami

There's a sixth force coming, and I think most people are underestimating it: 3D printing.

The common assumption is that 3D printing only matters for prototyping. Cheap plastics, quick mockups, then off to traditional manufacturing for the real thing. That assumption is out of date. Additive manufacturing has moved into production, in steel and titanium, and it's getting impressive.

Look at Holthinrichs, the Dutch brand that 3D prints its cases, crowns, and buckles in steel, titanium, and even precious metals. Not as a gimmick. As the production method, and one that enables designs traditional machining can't produce. Or look at Ming's Polymesh, a 3D printed titanium bracelet built from nearly 1,700 interlocking components with no pins or screws. It physically cannot be made any other way.

Cases and bracelets are in production today. Movements and components are the frontier. When additive manufacturing keeps compressing the cost and complexity of making watch hardware, the "easy to start" side of my paradox gets even easier. Which brings us to the problem.

Why winning is the hardest it's ever been

Everything I just listed is available to everyone. Low barriers don't create winners. They create crowds.

There are a gazillion competitors and ankle biters fighting for the same attention. The release calendar is relentless: collabs, limited editions, new colorways, seemingly every single day. It feels like a microbrand dropped a new colorway just yesterday. Oh wait, they did. Imperial Watch Co announced its Rangefinder limited editions a few weeks ago, and Awake released a new Son Mai limited edition on a similar time table. Both will probably sell out, and both will be old news in a month.

That's the game now. Distribution is free, so everyone has it, so nobody does. The scarce resource isn't manufacturing capability or capital. It's sustained attention, and sustained attention is brutally expensive to earn and even more expensive to keep.

The bottom line

Would I start a watch brand? No. The economics of starting from zero don't clear my bar, and the attention market is a knife fight.

Would I buy and transform one, or several, at the right price with the right platform thesis? That conversation I'd take.

In the meantime, I'll keep doing what has better returns anyway: collecting the output of people braver than me.